Oil slips after Libya resumes output, China data eyed Oil prices dipped for a second session on Monday after Libya resumed production over the weekend while China, the world’s largest crude importer, is expected to release economic data showing that its post-pandemic recovery is fizzling out. Brent crude futures fell 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $79.30 a barrel by 0055 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.90 a barrel, down 52 cents, or 0.7%. Two of the three Libyan oilfields shut on Thursday, the Sharara and El Feel oilfields with a total production capacity of 370,000 barrels per day (bpd), resumed on Saturday evening, four oil engineers and oil ministry said. The 108 field remained shut. Output was halted in protest against the abduction of a former finance minister. In Russia, oil exports from western ports are set to fall by some 100,000-200,000 bpd next month from July levels, a sign Moscow is making good on its pledge for fresh supply cuts in tandem with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, two sources said on Friday, citing export plans. On the economic front, stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data in the U.S. on Friday dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve was set to end its rate hiking cycle at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said. There is also some nervousness among traders ahead of another big week ahead for economic data from China, the UK and Japan, he added. “All three of these readings will play a part in determining what the next move is for three key central banks the PBOC, BoE and the BoJ and by extension whether oil demand will receive a boost,” Sycamore said.
Services miss estimates; Software better than expected: Services business grew 0.6% q-o-q cc and missed HCLT’s Q3FY23 guidance, mainly due to a 3.8% q-o-q cc decline in the ER&D segment. Growth in the IT&BS segment moderated slightly to 1.6% q-o-qcc but was in line with estimates. BFSI and Life Sciences were the key growth drivers, while communications were the drag among verticals. Growth was led by the Americas region, while Europe and ROW posted declines.
Decline in bookings reflects delays in decision-making: HCLT won 10 large deals in services and three large deals in Software with net-new deal TCV of $2.1bn, down 8% y-o-y. Deal wins were driven by the services portfolio, were centered on cost optimisation and vendor consolidation and came mainly from BFSI, manufacturing and Life Sciences verticals. Management highlighted a ramp-down in discretionary spending in Hitech and communications verticals but pointed to a strong deal pipeline.
FY24 guidance in line with expectations: HCLT has guided for 6-8% y-o-y growth for overall business and 6.5-8.5% y-o-y cc growth in services segment and 18-19% margins in FY24—all in line with our assumptions. We maintain our FY24-25 cc revenue growth and margin estimates and expect HCLT to deliver 6.5% cc revenue growth and 18.4% margins in FY24. However, we lower our earnings forecasts by 2% to factor the higher tax rate indicated by the management.
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Raise PT: HCLT has fared better in Q4, particularly in North America and BFSI, unlike its peers. However, rising demand uncertainty as a US recession nears remains a concern. HCLT’s stock at CMP trades at 17x PE and offers a 5% yield, which in our view should limit downsides and derating. Hence, we raise our target PE to 17x (16x earlier) and raise our PT to Rs 1,125, offering 8% potential upside.