Nifty may fall below 17500 if weakness persists, US Fed may hike rate by 100 bps; watch out for these levels
时间:2024-06-26 07:52:58 阅读(143)
By Anand James
At the beginning of last week, we had less fear of a long liquidation as the long build up was significantly lower than what was prevailing in early April and mid August, the last two occasions when Nifty sniffed at 18k vicinity and turned lower. FIIs’ long exposure in the index future segment was boosted to 28% on Friday, despite the fall, marking an increase from 22% seen at the start of the week. It was the retail segment that was long heavy, having accumulated 72.9% of the longs in the index future segment, last week, and they have since reduced their exposure marginally to 68.9%.
Indian markets did brave the storm on Wednesday, lifting off remarkably after a gapped down opening, enticing the view that we are completely decoupled. That this argument is a bit of a stretch, came to fore in the subsequent days, when Indian stocks also cracked after pressure in US stocks persisted. More importantly, this was the fourth attempt this year, when Nifty has forayed above 18000 in search of a new record peak, but only to face rejection trades. This time around, the twin rate decisions scheduled ahead from the US as well as India were too big an event risk to ignore while on the hunt for a newer peak, thus justifying the profit booking, especially after coming close to our upside objective of 18160.
Clearly, risk off trade is in play, and this has been aggravated by a higher US inflation reading as well as other macros including recent jobless claims pointing to a healthier economy that can withstand a hawkish regime. Incidentally, a 50 bps rate hike is completely off the table, and the possibility of a 100 bps hike has risen to 24% from zero, a week back.
Also read: Nifty may slip below 17400, resistance at 17777; buy these two stocks to pocket short-term gains
The 200 day SMA is neatly parked at the 17000 mark, appearing as the first objective in the event of continuation of downtrend, followed by 16650. However, we prefer to begin the week with low expectation of a collapse, given the close above 17500. Similar close was also seen in Bank Nifty. However, should the Nifty fail to clear 17860 on the bounce, the 17500 region may not hold for long. And yet, patterns do not suggest an outright collapse though. Towards this end, how VIX plays out in the next week would be crucial. After a near 10% rise in VIX on Friday to push well above 20, there was a decline, negating the collapse momentum. We had below August peaks of 21.2, which had come even amidst FIIs returning as buyers. So, hope and recent history holds an edge, despite fears of a melt down.
(Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views expressed are the author’s own.)
上一篇:Buy these two stocks for near-term gains; Nifty set to scale fresh highs in coming sessions
下一篇:Yatharth Hospital IPO Listing- Shares have tepid debut on bourses, list at 1% premium
猜你喜欢
- Will the strong GDP numbers propel Nifty to claim a new high- 8 things to know before the share market opens
- Will Nifty gain, trade flat or fall under 17,600- Check 7 things to know before share market opens on 24 April
- Your Money- Grey market premium – A message for an IPO
- Wipro share price jumps 3% after board OKs Rs 12,000 crore buyback; Should you buy, hold, sell Wipro stock-
- CBSE to soon release CTET 2024 exam city slips and admit cards
- Your stock broker may charge more
- Will Nifty show trend reversal to trade above 19800 or fall in trade- See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens
- e 39,500. “Support placed at 17900 and 39,200.” Meanwhile, Nagaraj Shetti believes that any lack of strength around 17900-18000 levels in the next 1-2 sessions could pull Nifty below the resistance area in the short term. “On the other side, a decisive move above 18K mark is likely to pull Nifty towards the next upside target of 18600 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 17760 levels,” he said.
Also Read: Zerodha’s Nikhil Kamath tells when to buy stocks, shares Buffett formula to find the right time
FII and DII trades: Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have been net buyers of domestic stocks for successive days now. On Wednesday, FIIs pumped in Rs 2,347 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) have been net sellers, pulling out Rs 510 crore yesterday.
IPO watch: Syrma SGS Technology enters the final day of bidding today. So far the issue, that opened last week, has been subscribed 2.27 times. Retail investors have subscribed their portion 2.66 times while NIIs have bid for their quota 3.58 times and QIB portion has been bid for 0.71 times.
- Chai pe Charcha with BrandWagon_3