Navigating the complex terrain of year-end trends; Assessing sector dynamics and overbought conditions
时间:2024-06-26 09:41:54 阅读(143)
How poised are we to extent the incredulous uptrend that is on? Among sectors, auto and realty appears to be slowing down having taken the baton much early, but my sense is that they are not fully done yet. Meanwhile laggards are catching up, like IT and pharma. But along this theme, metal index has the lowest YTD gains of 13.82%, but our bets are on FMCG, which has so far gained 24.74% this year.
During the last two years, we had entered the last week of the year on a low when compared with that of early December or late November. Unfortunately, we do not have that low base this year, being very close to record peaks. And despite Wednesday’s sharp falls, stocks and indices still carry the burden of being overbought, that should weigh on hopes of a Santa rally.
Friday also succeeded in keeping the bears at bay, that should help Nifty enter the last week on a positive frame. The shortened week could however weigh on the minds, and put a cap on upside attempts as the week progresses.
With this in perspective, we will enter the last week of the year with low expectations of a directional move. Should we hold above 21230, expect upsides aiming 21540, but not much beyond. Alternatively, slippage past 21230 could threaten the 14d ema at 20998 again, or could launch an attack on the gap below 20500.
But consistent with our views on the upside, a collapse is also less favoured this week. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty appears less bullish than what we felt at the beginning of last week, favoured view expects buyers to withdraw perhaps until 46600-46400 region before allowing bulls to regroup and resume the upside trajectory aiming 48900. And as maintained with Nifty as well, expectations of a collapse is limited.
(Anand James,ChiefMarketStrategist atGeojit Financial Services. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
上一篇:Bills replacing British-era criminal laws get President’s assent, become law
下一篇:Xiaomi 12 Pro first look at design, specs, top features and more - In Photos
猜你喜欢
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles above 17900, Sensex jumps 350 pts; Bank Nifty above 43000, Bajaj shares gain
- Bikaji Foods International IPO share allotment- Check status online, grey market premium; listing on 16 Nov
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles below 17350, Sensex tanks 500 pts; Bank Nifty below 40400, Adani stocks rise
- Bullion prices to consolidate in broader range with positive bias; check gold, silver support, resistance levels
- Sebi attaches bank, demat, MF accounts of Mehul Choksi to recover dues
- Boeing 737 Max 9 crisis- Federal officials order grounding of some jetliners after plane suffers mid-air blowout
- Bengaluru-based property developer Puravankara 9MFY24 sales up 89%
- Bumper debut by Tata Tech, opens with striking 140% premium on IPO price
- SGX Nifty suggests weak opening on F&O options expiry; 5 things to know before opening bell