Nifty to see sustainable rally above 15850, charts suggest short-term bounce; check what derivative data says
时间:2024-06-26 13:57:20 阅读(143)
By Anand James
Violent swings marked the closing hours of last week, in line with the drama prevailing all through the week. But it also lent an even poise, giving all types of traders something to look forward to in the coming week. Put options were added the most to 14000 strike, which is also what charts are pointing for the medium term. However, we believe that a short term bounce is due. OI in NSE Nifty 50 is the highest at 15000 and 16000, which is relatively a muted range, when put in the backdrop of last week’s plunge. The skew of PE towards ATM, hints at a bearish exhaustion. Long puts of previous days have been liquidated, but smart money has moved to short PEs at 14500 and 15000. Calls were short the most 16300, 16000 and 15700, in that order, but this is mostly a premium scalping approach, given VIX at relatively low level, when compared to previous peaks this year.
However, meanwhile, it could give a wriggling room for a relief rally. FII longs in index futures have remained under 15%, which is a historic low. This cannot be dismissed as a lack of activity by FIIs in the segment, as their shorts are at the highest since 2020. While FIIs’ record 2.11 lakh crore selling of Indian equities that has persisted over eight months can be construed as borne out of need for cash, being starved elsewhere, the massive index future shorts that they have been sitting on, and continue to hold, suggest that they have been equally bearish on Indian equities. While this also sets up conditions for short covering rallies, we feel that its prospects look limited for now.
With this in perspective, we see sustainable rallies only above once above 15850, but see potential for upswings early in the week, which in turn are likely to face challenges in the 15530-600 region initially.
(Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views expressed are the author’s own.)
猜你喜欢
- Market LIVE- Sensex ends 776 pts up, Nifty at 17200, midcaps outgun; Reliance, Bajaj Finance jump 3
- Nifty to add gains to reclaim 20000 or continue to fall in trade- See GIFT Nifty, FII data, crude, F&O ban, more before market opens
- Nifty support at 15900-16200 for expiry week, use call ladder for gains; Bank Nifty to remain negative
- Where is share market headed after Nifty closes above 17900, Bank Nifty above 43000; check support, resistance
- Long term share market investment- Keep 10-15 stocks in portfolio to make money
- WFI’s ad hoc committee announces 13-member wrestling team for upcoming Zagreb Open in Croatia – Full player’s list here
- Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Rating- Neutral; Loan recovery to feel the heat with RBI ban
- Nifty rally breaks away from 18-month long bear market; RBI may cut rates later this year
- Vivo X100, X100 Pro India debut today- Watch LIVE launch here [Video]