Buy these 2 stocks for gains; Nifty to face resistance at 16500, support placed at 15950 By Rohan Patil Benchmark Index traded in a narrow range of 15550 and 15950 levels for almost eight weeks and formed a channel pattern on the daily time frame. The index finally broke its consolidation range on the higher side and witnessed a channel pattern breakout on 3rd August and registered a lifetime high 16349.45 levels on August 5. Nifty 50 has given a 3.01 per cent returned on the weekly chart, which indicates a very strong consolidation breakout. Since the index is trading in uncharted territory, using Fibonacci extensions suggests 16500 will be the next resistance for the index, and on the downside; supports are placed near 15950 which was the previous resistance zone. Nifty FINANCIAL Index witnessed a consolidation breakout that generated 4.05 per cent returns for the week and it is the leading gainer among all indices. Nifty IT Index continued to close higher for the fourth straight week rose 2.70 per cent for the week. The Index’s which underperformed or closed in red for the week is the Nifty Media Index which drifts for more than four per cent and closed below its 50- DMA. BANK NIFTY Bank Nifty on August 6, started the day with a gap-up opening but was unable to surpass the psychological level of 36000 on a closing basis. In the previous 3 trading sessions, we witnessed selling pressure near 36000-36200 zones. Reading the option chain data, we see that maximum call writing has taken at 36000 strike price which will be crucial in upcoming trading sessions. If the price is able to sustain this zone we may see an upswing till 36550 levels. On the Put side, maximum OI is at 35500 and 35000 levels respectively which will act as immediate support. On the indicator front, MACD has given a positive Crossover which indicates that the move is likely to continue northward. The daily RSI is at 60 which mean that the index has still not reached overbought levels and the upside is likely to be seen. ADX (14) shows a reading of 17 and is rising which explains the strength of the trend will continue. Currently, the index is trading above its major exponential moving averages. Major resistance is placed near 36500 levels and on the downside, major support zone is at 33500 on the weekly charts. HCL Technologies: BUY CMP: Rs 1050 | Target Rs 1147 |Stop Loss Rs 1005Return 09.23% HCL Technologies has given a spectacular rally from the low of 375 on 20th March 20, to an all-time high of 1067 on 15th Jan 2021, and post that rally prices went in a sideways consolidation for almost six months and traded in a range between 1040 to 950 levels. HCL Tech has formed a triangle formation within that six months period and finally broken out of a triangle pattern at 1061 levels on 05th Aug and the prices have registered a decisive breakout that suggests a change in the trend from sideways to upside. Stock is trading above its 21, 50 & 100- day exponential moving averages on a daily time frame, which is positive for the prices in the near term. When we observe volume activity there has been above-average volume set up from the past couple of weeks on the daily chart, which indicates accumulation phrase. Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is reading above 60 levels with positive crossover on the daily scale. HEG: BUY CMP: Rs 2365 | Target Rs 2530 | Stop Loss Rs 2270Return 7% The prices were trading in a range of 2160 to 2290 for almost two months and have formed triangle pattern formation on the daily chart. HEG has broken out of a triangle pattern at 2347 levels on 02nd Aug and the prices have registered a decisive breakout that suggests a change in the trend from sideways to upside. Stock is trading above its 21, 50 & 100- day exponential moving averages on daily time frame, which is positive for the prices in the near term. MACD indicator is reading above its centerline with positive crossover above its signal line. Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is reading near 60 levels which indicates positive momentum will like to continue ahead. (Rohan Patil is a Technical Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio Ltd. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.