Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, elevated crude prices; USDINR pair to trade with positive bias

Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, elevated crude prices; USDINR pair to trade with positive bias

Rupee likely to depreciate on Thursday amid strong dollar and worries about elevated crude oil prices. US$INR is expected to trade in the range of 79.00 to 79.30, according to ICICIDirect. In the previous session, rupee breached the psychologically significant level of 79 per dollar level for the first time ever, marking the sixth straight session of all-time weak closes as worries about elevated oil prices and inflation weighed on emerging market assets. The currency depreciated 18 paise to a record low close of 79.03 per dollar, provisionally, weighed down by persistent foreign capital outflows driven by flight-to-safety bets. The local unit opened weak at 78.86 against the greenback, then lost ground to end provisionally at 79.03 — its all-time low level.Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

“The forward market indicates a slightly higher opening for the rupee as rebalancing-related adjustment has been completed. In the last two days, the rupee depreciated by 0.80% or 62 paise to 78.97 a dollar following high dollar demand and short supply following month, quarter and half-yearly adjustment. Looking at the past few days’ price action, we could see profit booking in USDINR before heading above 79.10. However, the trend remains bullish amid stronger dollar demand, foreign fund outflows and risk-averse moods. The pair is having near-term support at 78.38 and resistance at 79.10.”

“Dollar in today’s Asian session continues to gain thereby putting other crosses under pressure. Today, focus will be on the core PCE index number; expectation is that it could remain elevated as compared to Fed’s target of 2%. Apart from core PCE index, personal spending will also be keenly watched and a higher reading could extend gains for the greenback.We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 78.70 and 79.20.”

Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodity and Currency Research, Religare Broking

“The Indian rupee has continued to move on the downhill journey since the beginning of the year, amid a backdrop of heavy foreign fund outflows from the domestic markets, strength in the safe-haven dollar towards two-decade highs, and firming crude oil prices. The backdrop of heated inflation, prolonged Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the monetary tightening campaign of the key central banks, and supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war are clouding the outlook for global economic activity and have led to steep depreciation of the rupee against the dollar by around 6.30% YTD.”

“Even as the rupee holds a depreciation bias in the near term, we envisage that the rupee would manage to reverse some of the losses in the second half of the year. Strong long-term fundamentals, political stability, and a large pile of forex reserves are likely to provide a cushion to the Indian rupee around the crucial 80 mark. While our FX reserves have depleted by around $10bln in June, indicating that the RBI is proactively expending reserves to stem the sharp fall in the domestic currency, we still fare well in terms of import cover and other short-term debt obligations. However, RBI is opting for other measures too such as tightening monetary policy, which may arrest the rupee weakness.”

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