Zomato share price may rally 21%, says HSBC; grocery business termed ‘poison pill’, check target Zomato stock price has plummeted 50% so far this year, erasing massive investor wealth as the scrip fell below the IPO price. Despite the fall in stock price, analysts at HSBC have maintained their ‘Buy’ call on the food delivery giant. HSBC has also maintained its target price of Rs 85 per share, which translated to a 21% upside from Wednesday’s opening price. HSBC said that synergies between Zomato’s Food Delivery (FD) and Instant Grocery business are key for the company. The global brokerage firm had upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’ earlier in May this year. HSBC noted that investors are broadly divided on Zomato’s strategy to acquire Blinkit and some even question the merit of foraying into the grocery (hyperlocal) business. Analysts said that building a grocery business will work as a “poison pill” for Zomato. “It would need reasonably high investment and hence cash burn and is likely to be a significant logistical challenge to execute as well, but still Zomato can’t afford not to do it in our view,” they added. Analysts said that Zomato could either go with the quick-commerce model for grocery business with 10-15-minute delivery or with a full kitchen offering that offers delivery the next day. “In our view, Zomato has to attempt to build its grocery business closer to the middle of this framework and leverage technology to design and manage its dark stores so as to offer 4-5K SKUs with 10-60m delivery TAT. Cross-selling to Zomato’s customer base, integrating the tech stack and building fulfilment infrastructure (as above) are top priorities for Zomato to build a successful grocery business, in our view,” they added. The target price of Rs 85 per share implies a 21% upside from Wednesday’s opening price of Rs 70 per share. “Fundamentally, we believe unlike many other segments in the new-tech space, food delivery is relatively mature, with a healthy duopoly structure and clear value proposition,” analysts said.
Services miss estimates; Software better than expected: Services business grew 0.6% q-o-q cc and missed HCLT’s Q3FY23 guidance, mainly due to a 3.8% q-o-q cc decline in the ER&D segment. Growth in the IT&BS segment moderated slightly to 1.6% q-o-qcc but was in line with estimates. BFSI and Life Sciences were the key growth drivers, while communications were the drag among verticals. Growth was led by the Americas region, while Europe and ROW posted declines.
Decline in bookings reflects delays in decision-making: HCLT won 10 large deals in services and three large deals in Software with net-new deal TCV of $2.1bn, down 8% y-o-y. Deal wins were driven by the services portfolio, were centered on cost optimisation and vendor consolidation and came mainly from BFSI, manufacturing and Life Sciences verticals. Management highlighted a ramp-down in discretionary spending in Hitech and communications verticals but pointed to a strong deal pipeline.
FY24 guidance in line with expectations: HCLT has guided for 6-8% y-o-y growth for overall business and 6.5-8.5% y-o-y cc growth in services segment and 18-19% margins in FY24—all in line with our assumptions. We maintain our FY24-25 cc revenue growth and margin estimates and expect HCLT to deliver 6.5% cc revenue growth and 18.4% margins in FY24. However, we lower our earnings forecasts by 2% to factor the higher tax rate indicated by the management.
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Raise PT: HCLT has fared better in Q4, particularly in North America and BFSI, unlike its peers. However, rising demand uncertainty as a US recession nears remains a concern. HCLT’s stock at CMP trades at 17x PE and offers a 5% yield, which in our view should limit downsides and derating. Hence, we raise our target PE to 17x (16x earlier) and raise our PT to Rs 1,125, offering 8% potential upside.