Automobiles and Components- Expect volumes to grow moderately
时间:2024-06-28 22:39:31 阅读(143)
We expect a gradual recovery in domestic 2W segment volumes in the coming years due to continued increase in the cost of ownership, higher inflation and weak rural demand. In terms of segments, we expect electric scooter and premium motorcycle to continue to outperform; however, we expect ICE (internal combustion engine) scooter volumes to decline from FY2024E. Further, export 2W segment demand remains under pressure, given the slowdown in the African economy, which we expect to moderately recover from 2HCY23. We maintain our negative stance on 2W OEMs and retain rating on BJAUT (Reduce), HMCL (Reduce) and TVS (Sell).
We expect domestic 2W industry volumes to witness an 8% CAGR over FY2023-25E, mainly on account of continuing momentum in EV 2W sales and 10% CAGR in premium motorcycle segment volumes, led by newer launches and consumers’ preference for high performance vehicles. However, continued price increases by OEMs as well as higher inflation will continue to weigh on replacement demand, especially in the economy motorcycle segment. In addition, we expect domestic ICE scooter segment volumes to decline by 10% CAGR over FY2023-25E, as the electrification trend in the scooter segment continues to pick up pace.
We expect EV segment volumes to grow by 3X to 700k units in FY2023E, led by attractive subsidies by the central government under FAME-II policy, select state governments providing incremental subsidies as well as road tax concessions, newer launches at attractive price points, and further increase in prices in the ICE scooter segment. Further, we expect EV segment volumes to grow to 1.8 mn units by FY2025E.
Also read: Paytm shares rally 4.2% on positive quarter; loan disbursements at Rs 9,958 crore in Q3FY23
We expect a gradual recovery in domestic 2W volumes in the coming years on higher inflation, further increase in upfront cost, and weak demand from rural segment. Further, increased sales in the EV segment will continue to weigh on ICE 2W segment volumes and profitability. While the worst may be over in terms of volumes for the export 2W segment, we expect volumes to grow moderately in the coming years.
上一篇:Stocks To Watch- M&M, Adani Ports, Sun Pharma, Vedanta, Coal India, Torrent Pharma, Suzlon Energy
下一篇:WTI Crude oil outlook for next week after ending previous week slightly lower
猜你喜欢
- PVR-INOX- The merger of synergies & opportunities – Rating- Add
- Revolutionising Antibiotics- Zosurabalpin’s potent defense against drug-resistant bacteria unveiled
- Religare’s top stock picks include Balkrishna Industries, Can Fin Homes, HCL Tech and Hero MotoCorp
- Reliance stock call- Good opportunity to buy RIL, says Jefferies after share price tanks 14% in 2 months
- Republic Day 2020 celebrations- India’s military might, cultural diversity at display – IN PICS
- Rating- buy - SBI Cards focuses on quality to tackle credit costs
- Reliance, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Axis Bank, Gland Pharma, Kotak Bank, Adani group stocks in focus
- Returns from midcap index turn negative in 2022
- Reliance, Radiant Cash Management, Avenue Supermarts, ONGC, Vedanta, SBI, RailTel, NTPC stocks in focus