Nifty headed to 21200, Bank Nifty may top 52000 in year 2023; Banking, Tech shares may drive rally
时间:2024-06-26 11:34:11 阅读(143)
While the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have declined 10-20% so far this year, Indian benchmark index NSE Nifty 50 has outperformed, rallying around 4% YTD. In the coming year CY23, Nifty is likely to move towards 21,200, according to analysts at ICICIdirect. “Low leverage among heavyweight sectors like banking and technology to lead Nifty towards 21,200,” the brokerage said. After one year of continued outflows, the BFSI space has started witnessing fresh flows in the last two quarters where banking was the major beneficiary. Analysts expect the same trend to continue in 2023 as well, it added.Bank Nifty to move beyond 52000
The Bank Nifty index has been the major driver of the Nifty since 2008 as visible through price ratio. There have been intermediate corrections of 25-30% in the ratio, followed by outperformance by 50-70% as seen in 2013, 2015, and 2019. “Henceforth, we believe that a similar outperformance trend should be seen in the coming months,” the brokerage said. HDFC Bank is expected to lead the index as the weight of the stock in the index is likely to increase due to the merger of HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank.
Bharat Forge: Initiation Range: Rs 875-900 | Target: Rs 1150 | Stop Loss: Rs 730 | Upside: Rs 28%Hindalco Metal: Initiation Range: Rs 455-470 | Target: Rs 590 | Stop Loss: Rs 380 | Upside: Rs 26%LTIMindtree: Bharat Forge: Initiation Range: Rs 4350-4450 | Target: Rs 5800 | Stop Loss: Rs 3620 | Upside: Rs 31%MCX: Initiation Range: Rs 1610-1655 | Target: Rs 2150 | Stop Loss: Rs 1330 | Upside: Rs 30%State Bank of India: Initiation Range: Rs 610-625 | Target: Rs 790 | Stop Loss: Rs 515 | Upside: Rs 26%Sun Pharma: Initiation Range: Rs 970-1000 | Target: Rs 1260| Stop Loss: Rs 830 | Upside: Rs 26%
Indian market obstinateIndian markets have changed course from being Hypersensitive to becoming Obstinate, according to analysts. From 2011 to 2020, Indian equities were hypersensitive to global volatility as the degree of reaction to rise in US VIX was much higher. However, in the post covid era, Indian markets have shown signs of maturity and exhibited significant resilience to intermediate surge in global volatility, the brokerage stated.
Volatility upsides to be limited in 2023According to the ICICIdirect report, historically, volatility has been in a downward trend for a prolonged period of time, which, in turn, has been one of the best return periods for the Nifty. “While the low volatility could be a cause for concern due to lack of risk perception, historical evidence suggests that low levels of volatility may remain for an extended period of time,” it said, adding that since 2021, India VIX has failed to sustain above 26 and remained in a declining trend. “We expect volatility upsides to be limited in 2023 and remain on the lower side,” the brokerage said.
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- d that milk prices are unlikely to witness spikes in the coming months due to cooler temperature in April and parts of May, which has delayed the onset of ‘lean’ season, when milk production usually drops.
Retail inflation in milk was reported at 8.85% in May 2023. The milk inflation has remained elevated at over 6% since August 2022. Despite India being the largest milk producer since 1998, the commodity has been the second biggest factor after cereals such as rice and wheat in driving up retail inflation in the last fiscal.
Milk has the second highest weight in the food and beverages basket of the consumer price index at 6.61%, a notch lower than cereals and products with a 9.67% weight. Organised players, including Mother Dairy and Amul, hiked prices multiple times in the last one year citing higher fodder cost, robust demand and some impact due to reports of lumpy skin disease.
Industry sources said feed cost, which has a share of more than 65% in the cost of production of milk, has increased to Rs 20/kg from Rs 8 a year ago. The finance ministry in April had attributed the elevated milk inflation to a demand supply mismatch and said it could be one of the factors apart from volatile international crude oil prices and constrained supplies of milk would influence the country’s inflation trajectory.
“Milk production has been impacted by a lumpy skin disease infecting millions of cattle in late 2022,” the ministry said in the monthly economic review, adding that the vaccination drive against the disease is expected to curb the spread and immune the cattle against the skin disease.
According to official data, currently India is the world’s largest milk producer, and has a share of 23% in global milk production. For the first time in decades, the country’s milk production is likely to have stagnated in 2022-23 due to Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle across several states and the lagged effect of Covid-19 in the form of stunting of the animals, a senior official with department of animal husbandry and dairying recently had stated. The milk production was estimated at 221 million tonne in 2021-22.
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