Oil slips after Libya resumes output, China data eyed
时间:2024-06-26 10:48:48 阅读(143)
Oil prices dipped for a second session on Monday after Libya resumed production over the weekend while China, the world’s largest crude importer, is expected to release economic data showing that its post-pandemic recovery is fizzling out.
Brent crude futures fell 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $79.30 a barrel by 0055 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.90 a barrel, down 52 cents, or 0.7%.
Two of the three Libyan oilfields shut on Thursday, the Sharara and El Feel oilfields with a total production capacity of 370,000 barrels per day (bpd), resumed on Saturday evening, four oil engineers and oil ministry said.
The 108 field remained shut. Output was halted in protest against the abduction of a former finance minister.
In Russia, oil exports from western ports are set to fall by some 100,000-200,000 bpd next month from July levels, a sign Moscow is making good on its pledge for fresh supply cuts in tandem with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, two sources said on Friday, citing export plans.
On the economic front, stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data in the U.S. on Friday dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve was set to end its rate hiking cycle at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.
There is also some nervousness among traders ahead of another big week ahead for economic data from China, the UK and Japan, he added.
“All three of these readings will play a part in determining what the next move is for three key central banks the PBOC, BoE and the BoJ and by extension whether oil demand will receive a boost,” Sycamore said.
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- tions and academic institutions have computed logistics costs, which are widely quoted to stress the point that India is a country with high logistics costs.” In addition to the ones I mentioned earlier, NCAER cites three—Armstrong and Associates (2017), an estimate of 13% of GDP; CII (2015), an estimate of 10.9% of GVA; and NCAER (2019), an estimate of 8.9% of GVA. Clearly, there are variations in what is being measured and how. This new NCAER report uses supply and use tables. What does it find? In 2021-22, logistics costs had an estimated range of between 7.8% and 8.9%. In 2014-15, they had an estimated range of between 8.3% and 9.4%. There has been a decline over time (with a transient increase in 2017-18 and 2018-19). It cannot be anyone’s case that this new NCAER report is the last word on the subject. But it is a beginning, with a clear methodology. And two points emerge. First, logistics costs aren’t as bad as they are often made out to be. Second, they have declined over time (also evident from LPI).
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.
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