Nifty shorts still intact, avoid contra bets until any reversal signs emerge; support in 16500-16400 range By Ruchit Jain Nifty started the May series on a low open interest base and the stronger hands (FIIs) had rolled more short positions in the index futures segment. At the start of the new series, we did not witness any long formations as market participants were awaiting a decisive breakout beyond the recent consolidation range of 16800-17400. The U. S. Fed meet outcome was scheduled on Wednesday evening and it was anticipated that this event could lead to some conclusive breakout in the index. However, ahead of the expiry day, RBI came out with a surprise rate hike of 40 bps and this led to a sell-off in Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. If we look at the sectoral indices, most of the sectors have seen a sell-off with the short formation in many individual heavyweights. Thus, the data is bearish and one should avoid contra bets until any reversal signs are seen. Since FIIs have much of their positions on the short side in index futures, any covering from them could be the leading signs of reversal and hence traders are advised to track the same. The immediate support for Nifty is placed in the range of 16500-16400 followed by 16100-16000 range while 16800 – 17000 is the immediate resistance range. (Ruchit Jain is the Lead – Research, 5paisa.com. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.