Rupee may head towards 80
时间:2024-06-26 12:04:53 阅读(143)
By Dilip Parmar
The Indian rupee marked the fifth weekly gain in a row, earlier this kind of move was seen in November 2021, following a corrective move in the greenback since mid-December while Asian currencies strengthen after China re-opening. The dollar inflows in the debt markets and direct investment in start-ups further added gains in the rupee. In the week gone, spot USDINR fell 21 paise or 0.26% to 81.125. Spot USDINR could further decline in the coming days following broad-based weakness in the greenback and expectation of foreign fund inflows through Adani FPO and PSU bank bond issuance. Technically, the bearish trend could continue in the near term as it has formed an inverted hammer on the weekly chart.
CFTC Position: In the Forex market, the flow was skewed towards risk reduction. Speculators covered shorts in yen (12.4k), sterling (4.8k), CAD (3.7k), and MXN (4.7k) while selling longs in euro (8k) and kiwi (1.3k.) The aggregate dollar short rose by about $800 million on the week. EM stocks extended gains as most of the Federal Reserve members support a 25bps hike next meeting before the onset of the pre-FOMC blackout.
What to Watch: In China, business and data will pause for the Lunar New Year. India also has a truncated week with the Republic day holiday on Thursday. As the Fed enters the blackout period ahead of its Jan.31-Feb.1 meeting, markets have priced in a smaller (25bps) hike. The traders will eye on upcoming PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will bolster that market view, at least at first glance.
(Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)
猜你喜欢
- India Blockchain Forum launches Web3
- India to introduce AI climate models
- India rupee watches oil prices, bond yields eye RBI action
- PVR matter- Individual pays Rs 31 lakh for settlement with Sebi
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala stock tanks- Nazara Tech shares down 57% YTD, brokerage says valuations rich; check rating
- In Pics- Despair looms in Turkey, Syria as death toll crosses 20,000 mark
- ITC share price at new 52-week high, jumps 3% on rise in Q1 net profit; should you buy, sell or hold-
- ITC share price hits fresh all-time high today, gains 55% in one year; Should you buy, hold or sell ITC stock-
- Pristine Logistics & Infraprojects files IPO papers with Sebi