Nifty struggles at 19850- where will the next wave of buying come from-
时间:2024-06-26 16:24:59 阅读(143)
With Nifty struggling at the 19850 mark, where will the next wave of buying come from? Recent directional moves have rendered both small and mid cap indices sluggish, forcing them to slow down last week to catch breath. While RSI (14d) does not see either of the indices as extremes, the constituents of Midcap100 index look stronger with 26% of them closing near month’s high and 32% near week’s high. In the case of constituents of Smallcap250 index, 44% of the stocks have closed near week’s low. Even though both the indices have not shown signs of a reversal yet, we should expect some profit booking in Smallcap250 constituents while Midcap100 constituents could attract more buying.
Nifty failed to make much headway beyond the 19850 with which we had started the last week with. This tells a lot about the strength of the trend. Incidentally, we were willing to extend the target to 19960 or 20100, but momentum was seen quite indifferent last week. We are still hopeful of the same, but there is a sense that distribution in play, that could unfold a downswing towards 19591, the 50dma.
With Sensex, 66000 remained a sticky mark on Friday, and the derivatives expiry failed to get a move on the trading ranges prevailing all through last week. With Max pain coinciding at this level, moves remained agonisingly small. Expect a push higher initially into the 66400-600 region. A turn lower from here, and inability to float above 66000 could call for 65400. That said, we are less likely to see past 65400-66600, and it would be volatility inside this range that should mark the shortened week.
(Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)上一篇:Boeing addresses mishap concerns- Here’s what the CEO said amid swift criticism
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However, he believes that the impact on the Indian market is going to be temporary since there could be some short-term impact on flows into Indian equity markets. But since the Indian economy is on a strong wicket and will continue to remain resilient.
“Improved fiscal situation, controlled current deficit, stable interest scenario combined with good corporate earnings should lead to limited impact on the Indian bond market and equity market too,” he added.
The midcap and smallcap indices took a bigger knock with the BSE MidCap fell 2.51%, while BSE SmallCap index dived 4.18%. According to Amnish Aggarwal, head, research, Prabhudas Lilladher, the valuations were already high and some correction was expected. “If the situation sustains as it is then further correction can’t be ruled out,” Aggarwal said.
Telecommunication and industrials indices were the top laggards with BSE Telecommunication declining 3.82%, followed by BSE Industrials falling 3.26%. JSW Steel (-2.99%), Tata Steel (-2.52%) and Tata Consultancy Services (-2.44%) were the top losers of Sensex.
Surprisingly, both foreign portfolio investors and domestic institutional investors were net buyers today. While, FPIs net bought shares worth Rs 252.25 crore, DIIs have purchased shares worth Rs 1,111.84 crore, as per provisional data from exchanges.
Calling this a “normal phenomena” Pankaj Pandey, head, research, ICICI Direct said, “I will not really give too much weight to a single day buying figure. Amid concerns of elevated interest rate and geopolitical tensions, in a typical market cycle, 8-10% correction is possible at any point in time.”
The brunt of geopolitical conflict, elevated interest rates and rising crude oil prices was also felt by other Asian- Pacific markets. Jakarta Composite Index lost 1.57% followed by Shanghai Composite Index and PSEi, which fell 1.47% and 0.89%, respectively. Nikkei and KOSPI declined 0.83% and 0.76%.