Macro data, global trends to guide markets this week: Analysts Trading activity in the equity market this week will depend on macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global trends, analysts said. Bulls dominated Dalal Street last week, supported by favourable triggers like buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and a drop in crude prices. “This week, our Q2 GDP numbers and monthly auto sales numbers will be key domestic factors. On the global front, the market will keep an eye on data from the US and any further movement of the dollar index and US bond yields. Apart from this, news flow from China will continue to cause some volatility,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Also read: Nifty to move higher, resistance at 18630; stick to stock-specific trading, avoid bottom fishing Ajit Mishra, VP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said this week participants will be focusing on key macroeconomic data — GDP numbers and manufacturing PMI — for cues. “Besides, with the beginning of the new month, auto sales will also start pouring in from December 1. Apart from the domestic data set, performance of the global indices especially the US will remain on the radar,” Mishra added. Also read: Stock Market Holidays December 2022: BSE, NSE to remain closed on these days next month; check dates GDP data for the second quarter is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, while Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Thursday. “The Fed Chair’s speech, which is scheduled for this week, and the release of other significant macroeconomic data will influence the market’s future trajectory,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.