India likely to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024- Assocham
时间:2024-06-26 13:02:16 阅读(143)
India is likely to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world in 2024 on the back of strong consumer demand leading to a pick up in investment across sectors such as construction, hospitality and infrastructure including railways and aviation, Assocham said on Thursday.
India retained the tag of the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with its GDP expanding by a faster-than-expected rate of 7.6 per cent in the July-September quarter on booster shots from government spending and manufacturing.
The growth compares to 6.2 per cent in the same quarter last year and 7.8 per cent expansion in the preceding quarter, official data released on Thursday showed.
India’s GDP growth beat China’s 4.9 per cent rise in July-September, while the Western economies are getting crushed under high-interest rates and energy prices.
“India’s macro picture looks quite convincing with the overall economy following a trend growth of seven per cent with critical building blocks combining to give it brighter prospects,’ Assocham Secretary General Deepak Sood said.
According to the industry body, India Inc led by financials, construction, hotels, aviation, automobile and other manufacturing areas like electronics are on a strong pitch to further improve performance in the coming year.
The trajectory is being helped by the low crude oil prices, keeping inflation in check with a big positive on raw material cost.
“Sectors like construction have several related industries which too have gained momentum. These include steel, cement, mining, electricity generation and consumer durables,’ Assocham stated.
The macro economic indicators including government balance sheet reflected in strong tax collections, record foreign exchange reserves, stability in the rupee against major currencies and signs of revival in merchandise exports are expected to further improve, it estimated.
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- uidance range. Ebit margins at 18.2% were down 140bps and missed estimates due to higher-than-expected employee costs. Profits at Rs 39.8 bn were up 11% y-o-y and were slightly ahead of estimates due to a $21m gain booked on the buyback of senior notes in Q4.
Services miss estimates; Software better than expected: Services business grew 0.6% q-o-q cc and missed HCLT’s Q3FY23 guidance, mainly due to a 3.8% q-o-q cc decline in the ER&D segment. Growth in the IT&BS segment moderated slightly to 1.6% q-o-qcc but was in line with estimates. BFSI and Life Sciences were the key growth drivers, while communications were the drag among verticals. Growth was led by the Americas region, while Europe and ROW posted declines.
Decline in bookings reflects delays in decision-making: HCLT won 10 large deals in services and three large deals in Software with net-new deal TCV of $2.1bn, down 8% y-o-y. Deal wins were driven by the services portfolio, were centered on cost optimisation and vendor consolidation and came mainly from BFSI, manufacturing and Life Sciences verticals. Management highlighted a ramp-down in discretionary spending in Hitech and communications verticals but pointed to a strong deal pipeline.
FY24 guidance in line with expectations: HCLT has guided for 6-8% y-o-y growth for overall business and 6.5-8.5% y-o-y cc growth in services segment and 18-19% margins in FY24—all in line with our assumptions. We maintain our FY24-25 cc revenue growth and margin estimates and expect HCLT to deliver 6.5% cc revenue growth and 18.4% margins in FY24. However, we lower our earnings forecasts by 2% to factor the higher tax rate indicated by the management.
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Raise PT: HCLT has fared better in Q4, particularly in North America and BFSI, unlike its peers. However, rising demand uncertainty as a US recession nears remains a concern. HCLT’s stock at CMP trades at 17x PE and offers a 5% yield, which in our view should limit downsides and derating. Hence, we raise our target PE to 17x (16x earlier) and raise our PT to Rs 1,125, offering 8% potential upside.
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