Markets Wrap – Mon, 20 Mar ‘23- Nifty, Sensex tank, rupee falls; Asia, US markets, Gold, Crude updates

However, he believes that the impact on the Indian market is going to be temporary since there could be some short-term impact on flows into Indian equity markets. But since the Indian economy is on a strong wicket and will continue to remain resilient.

“Improved fiscal situation, controlled current deficit, stable interest scenario combined with good corporate earnings should lead to limited impact on the Indian bond market and equity market too,” he added.

The midcap and smallcap indices took a bigger knock with the BSE MidCap fell 2.51%, while BSE SmallCap index dived 4.18%. According to Amnish Aggarwal, head, research, Prabhudas Lilladher, the valuations were already high and some correction was expected. “If the situation sustains as it is then further correction can’t be ruled out,” Aggarwal said.

Telecommunication and industrials indices were the top laggards with BSE Telecommunication declining 3.82%, followed by BSE Industrials falling 3.26%. JSW Steel (-2.99%), Tata Steel (-2.52%) and Tata Consultancy Services (-2.44%) were the top losers of Sensex.

Surprisingly, both foreign portfolio investors and domestic institutional investors were net buyers today. While, FPIs net bought shares worth Rs 252.25 crore, DIIs have purchased shares worth Rs 1,111.84 crore, as per provisional data from exchanges.

Calling this a “normal phenomena” Pankaj Pandey, head, research, ICICI Direct said, “I will not really give too much weight to a single day buying figure. Amid concerns of elevated interest rate and geopolitical tensions, in a typical market cycle, 8-10% correction is possible at any point in time.”

The brunt of geopolitical conflict, elevated interest rates and rising crude oil prices was also felt by other Asian- Pacific markets. Jakarta Composite Index lost 1.57% followed by Shanghai Composite Index and PSEi, which fell 1.47% and 0.89%, respectively. Nikkei and KOSPI declined 0.83% and 0.76%.

Services miss estimates; Software better than expected: Services business grew 0.6% q-o-q cc and missed HCLT’s Q3FY23 guidance, mainly due to a 3.8% q-o-q cc decline in the ER&D segment. Growth in the IT&BS segment moderated slightly to 1.6% q-o-qcc but was in line with estimates. BFSI and Life Sciences were the key growth drivers, while communications were the drag among verticals. Growth was led by the Americas region, while Europe and ROW posted declines.

Decline in bookings reflects delays in decision-making: HCLT won 10 large deals in services and three large deals in Software with net-new deal TCV of $2.1bn, down 8% y-o-y. Deal wins were driven by the services portfolio, were centered on cost optimisation and vendor consolidation and came mainly from BFSI, manufacturing and Life Sciences verticals. Management highlighted a ramp-down in discretionary spending in Hitech and communications verticals but pointed to a strong deal pipeline.

FY24 guidance in line with expectations: HCLT has guided for 6-8% y-o-y growth for overall business and 6.5-8.5% y-o-y cc growth in services segment and 18-19% margins in FY24—all in line with our assumptions. We maintain our FY24-25 cc revenue growth and margin estimates and expect HCLT to deliver 6.5% cc revenue growth and 18.4% margins in FY24. However, we lower our earnings forecasts by 2% to factor the higher tax rate indicated by the management.

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Raise PT: HCLT has fared better in Q4, particularly in North America and BFSI, unlike its peers. However, rising demand uncertainty as a US recession nears remains a concern. HCLT’s stock at CMP trades at 17x PE and offers a 5% yield, which in our view should limit downsides and derating. Hence, we raise our target PE to 17x (16x earlier) and raise our PT to Rs 1,125, offering 8% potential upside.