Crude oil price rises slightly; focus on China demand and US outlook Crude oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trade on Tuesday in a market focused on prospects of demand recovery from top importer China and on the global economic outlook ahead of company earnings. Brent crude had risen 5 cents to $88.24 per barrel by 0116 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 13 cents to $81.75 per barrel. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally, as China, no longer held back by pandemic controls, has shown signs of more buying and as traders have worried that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. However, crude prices are wavering as the dollar stabilizes and over exhaustion from China-reopening headlines, according to OANDA analyst Edward Moya. Investors have piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns about a global business cycle downturn have eased. U.S. investors are fairly certain the Federal Reserve will implement a small interest rate rise next week even as it remains committed to taming inflation, which recent data shows is slowing. This week traders are watching for more business data that could indicate the health of global economies during an earnings reporting season.
Retail inflation in milk was reported at 8.85% in May 2023. The milk inflation has remained elevated at over 6% since August 2022. Despite India being the largest milk producer since 1998, the commodity has been the second biggest factor after cereals such as rice and wheat in driving up retail inflation in the last fiscal.
Milk has the second highest weight in the food and beverages basket of the consumer price index at 6.61%, a notch lower than cereals and products with a 9.67% weight. Organised players, including Mother Dairy and Amul, hiked prices multiple times in the last one year citing higher fodder cost, robust demand and some impact due to reports of lumpy skin disease.
Industry sources said feed cost, which has a share of more than 65% in the cost of production of milk, has increased to Rs 20/kg from Rs 8 a year ago. The finance ministry in April had attributed the elevated milk inflation to a demand supply mismatch and said it could be one of the factors apart from volatile international crude oil prices and constrained supplies of milk would influence the country’s inflation trajectory.
“Milk production has been impacted by a lumpy skin disease infecting millions of cattle in late 2022,” the ministry said in the monthly economic review, adding that the vaccination drive against the disease is expected to curb the spread and immune the cattle against the skin disease.
According to official data, currently India is the world’s largest milk producer, and has a share of 23% in global milk production. For the first time in decades, the country’s milk production is likely to have stagnated in 2022-23 due to Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle across several states and the lagged effect of Covid-19 in the form of stunting of the animals, a senior official with department of animal husbandry and dairying recently had stated. The milk production was estimated at 221 million tonne in 2021-22.