Gold in goldilocks zone, to best asset class in 2023; avoid taking short positions, go long around 56,500
时间:2024-06-26 02:45:59 阅读(143)
By Bhavik Patel
Gold market is expected to witness short term turbulence as the long side is getting overcrowded. Usually when everyone is bullish, there are high chances of correction. Right now investors are too optimistic, thinking the US Fed will start lowering interest rates by the end of the year. Dovish comments from the Fed also pushed prices higher. Despite short term turbulence, we still remain bullish on the market as rising interest rates will create a worse environment for equity markets.
Another factor which supports gold’s rally is buying from central banks. Last year central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes of gold, the second-highest amount since 1955. We expect central banks will continue to purchase gold for the foreseeable future, even if it’s not at the record levels seen last year.
In MCX, gold has seen a one way rally from 50,000 to 58,847. Since mid-December, prices have not touched its 20-day moving average. Market continues to trade in the overbought zone as RSI_14 is trading at 76. Historically, there are higher chances of correction whenever gold sustains in an overbought zone for higher periodic time. We believe a correction is near and investors should wait at least till levels of 56,800-56,500 before taking any fresh long entry. Today’s US Non-farm payroll data will also add volatility so caution is required.
This is not the market for taking short positions so avoid taking any counter bet but wait for correction before going long. The more the market will be in an overbought zone, the higher chances of correction as well as spike in volatility. So avoid taking any leveraged position as the market is already trading at all-time high in MCX.
(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
猜你喜欢
- 63% Gen-Z prefers brand supporting social causes, says Yuvaa’s report
- Rupee gains 63 paise to close at 81
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles below 18700, Sensex sinks 250 pts; Bank Nifty below 43650, Adani Group stocks tank
- Accent Microcell’s IPO opens on December 8 with price band between Rs 133–140
- 73% of CIOs foresee an increase in their IT budgets for 2024- Report
- Share Market Highlights- Sensex closes 100 pts lower at 53134, Nifty 50 ends at 15810; ITC, Wipro top drags
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles below 17100, Sensex falls 280 pts; Bank Nifty below 39650, SBI, Bajaj Auto fall
- Adani Green Energy share price jumps 5% today after Q4FY23 net profit triples to Rs 507 cr
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles below 18100, Sensex tanks 690 pts; Bank Nifty below 42670, HDFC twins fall 5%