10 transformations of last decade put India’s economy on a rocket; target $8 trillion economy: Morgan Stanley 10 transformational changes that have happened in India over the last decade are now set to propel the country to doubling per capita income, doubling export market share, raising the share of manufacturing, boosting corporate profits, and significantly improving other economic health indicators, said Morgan Stanley.. In its latest report titled ‘How India has Transformed in Less than a Decade’, global investment bank accredited policy changes, such as DBTs, supply-side policy reforms, and modification of the IBC, that led to overwhelmingly positive changes, influencing India’s macroeconomic situation, global standing and local share markets for the better. Ridham Desai, MD, Morgan Stanley India, also countered global opinions that India has underperformed, saying, “We run into significant skepticism about India, particularly with overseas investors, who say that India has not delivered its potential (despite its being the second-fastest-growing economy and among the top-performing stock markets over the past 25 years) and that equity valuations are too rich. However, such a view ignores the significant changes that have taken place in India, especially since 2014.” In order to demonstrate his rationale, the report focussed on ten key changes which have had far-reaching consequences and implications for the economy and market. This structural transformation will feed into the saving-investment dynamics, bolstering the country’s external balance sheet, in turn, leading to a narrower CAD. Domestic profits might double, which, while it explains the rich equity valuations, will lead to “a major rise in investments, a moderation in the CAD and an increase in credit to GDP to support the coming profit growth”. “Indian companies will likely witness a major increase in their profits share to GDP. Triggered by supply side reforms by the government, we expect a major rise in investments coupled with a moderation in the current account deficit and an increase in credit to GDP to support this rise,” said Morgan Stanley. Once these implications are achieved, it will lead to a lower correlation with oil prices as well as the US recession. It might also trigger a re-rating in the domestic share markets valuation. “This reflects persistent domestic demand for stocks and higher growth for longer. India is trading at a premium to long-term history, albeit well off highs and in line with recent history,” the report added. The report also noted that India’s beta to emerging markets has fallen to 0.6, which is a consequence of improved macro stability and reduction in dependence on global capital market flows to fund the CAD.
The Japanese pharma major is also filing a plea before the Delhi HC seeking appointment of forensic auditors to analyse transactions involving IHH, Fortis Healthcare and RHT, Singapore, as directed by the HC on October 18.
The development is likely to create legal hurdles and delay the proposed open offer as IHH had recently told FE that it could only go ahead if Sebi agreed with its legal interpretation that the SC’s September 22 order has lifted all such restraints.
IHH managing director and CEO Kelvin Loh told FE on November 9 that the company would like to go ahead with the open offer “as soon as possible” as there has already been a delay of four years. Ravi Rajagopal, chairman of Fortis Healthcare, had added that their legal counsel has advised that the company can go ahead with the open offer as the SC order has disposed of various appeals, including the suo motu contempt. “We have represented to the Sebi and the matter is with them,” Rajagopal had said.
However, legal observers told FE that the matter is not that straightforward and simple as the Delhi HC has to take the final call on the matter of open offer as well as whether a forensic audit has to be done in the share sale which was executed in 2018.
Also Read: IHH to float open offer for Fortis if Sebi concurs with our legal view: MD & CEO
Loh and Rajagopal had said the possibility that the matter may take a different turn when it comes up in Delhi HC cannot be ruled out.
IHH had in July 2018 acquired a 31% stake in Fortis Healthcare for Rs 4,000 crore through the bidding route. It had also earmarked Rs 3,000 crore to make an open offer for an additional 26% to the public shareholders as required under the law.
Daiichi has written to Sebi that the SC in its September 22 order had asked the HC to consider ordering a forensic audit into the dilution of FHL shareholding, repeated violation of undertakings and assurance by former FHL promoters — Malvinder and Shivinder Singh — and the transaction between FHL, IHH and the clandestine transfer of Rs 4,666 crore to RHT Singapore.
Daiichi is “severely prejudiced” with IHH’s clandestine attempt to subvert the status quo order directed by the SC on December 14, 2018, and September 22 with respect to the conduct of forensic audit and the pending proceedings before the HC by purportedly consulting regulatory authorities, including Sebi, on the proposed FHL-IHH transaction. It has reiterated that the FHL-IHH transaction was currently sub-judice before the HC where FHL is also a party, its solicitors, P&A Law Offices, have said in the letter.
“We further state that any such attempt by FHL and/or IHH to proceed with the FHH-IHH transaction would be in direct contravention of the HC and SC orders,” the letter sent by the law firm has stated. Daiichi Sankyo is pursuing the enforcement of Rs 3,500-crore arbitration award against the Singh brothers pronounced by a Singapore tribunal for concealing information when they sold Ranbaxy Laboratories to it for $4.6 billion in 2008. The apex court had in 2018 put on hold the sale of Fortis Healthcare to IHH on a contempt plea filed by the Japanese drugmaker against the Singh brothers.