Budget 2023 to fuel Nifty bulls or index to give up 17500? 10 things to know before share market opens Benchmark indices are likely to open with gains on Budget 2023 hinted SGX Nifty as Nifty futures traded 130 pts higher at 17882 on the Singapore Exchange. “Markets are likely to see some volatility on budget day. Any constructive announcement by the government in the Union Budget can take the market higher. The focus would be largely growth-oriented with emphasis on further development of infrastructure like roads, railways, water, metro cities. Further, a lot of emphasis would be laid on renewable energy in order to reduce the energy cost to GDP with more incentives being announced to push solar power, EV, public transport, etc. Thus, a lot of stock-specific action will be seen in these sectors,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.10 things to know before share market opens Global market watch: Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher on Wednesday as investors await Fed meeting outcome, as well as some economic data in the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.8% and the Topix climbed 0.7% in its first hour of trade. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.8% and the Kosdaq rose 0.78%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 0.14% Overnight in the US, all three major Wall Street indexes rose on the back of strong earnings and encouraging inflation data. Dow Jones rose 1.09%, S&P 500 gained 1.46%, and Nasdaq added 1.67%. Key levels to watch: “Volume profile indicates that Nifty index has a strong support around 17350-17450 zone. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side, the highest OI observed at 17800 followed by 18000 strike prices while on the put side, the highest OI was at 17500 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 39500-39700 while resistance is placed at 41100-41300 range,” said Om Mehra, Equity Research Analyst, Choice Broking. Q3 Result today: Britannia Industries, Ashok Leyland, Ajanta Pharma, Alembic Pharmaceuticals, Gillette India, IDFC, Jubilant FoodWorks, Kaya, Mahindra Logistics, Ramco Systems, Raymond, Redington, RPG Life Sciences, Sundram Fasteners, Tata Chemicals, Timken India, UTI Asset Management Company, Whirlpool of India, and Zuari Agro Chemicals stocks to be in focus ahead of quarterly earnings on February 1. FII and DII data: Foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold shares worth Rs 5,439.64 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors (DII) net bought shares worth Rs 4,506.31 crore on 31 January, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: The National Stock Exchange has Ambuja Cements stocks under its F&O ban list for 1 February. According to the NSE, the stock mentioned above is prohibited in the F&O sector because it has exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock. Budget 2023 today: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present Modi government’s final full Union Budget before the 2024 general election. Budget 2023 is expected to unveil a bouquet of measures that will boost the economy at a time when global recessionary headwinds are expected to hit growth. FM Sitharaman is expected to remain congnisant of the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline. It is expected that the govt will curb wasteful expenditure to free up funds to boost infra, and build more roads and ports, create jobs and enhance supply chains to bolster PM Modi’s ambition to make India a global powerhouse. Core sector growth rises: India’s eight core industrial sectors grew by 7.4% in December 2022, as against a growth of 3.8% recorded in the year-ago period. The core sector growth is also higher as compared to the previous month, November 2022, when it stood at 5.4%. A surge in the output of five segments – coal, steel, cement, fertiliser and electricity – aided the higher growth in December, data showed. The production of coal increased by 11.5% on-year, electricity by 10%, steel by 9.2%, cement by 9.1% and fertiliser by 7.3%. Fiscal deficit rises: Government’s fiscal deficit widened to Rs 9.93 lakh crore in the April-December period, accounting for 59.8% of the full-year target for 2022-23, data released by the Controller General of Accounts showed. The fiscal deficit in the first nine months of the last financial year was 50.4% of last year’s target. The total revenue receipts for the April-December period stood at Rs 22.83 lakh crore, which is 79.9% of the budget estimate for FY23. In the comparable year-ago period, total receipts had hit 89.1% of the budget estimate. GST collections jump in January: The government collected Rs 1.56 lakh crore as GST in January, second only to the record Rs 1.68 lakh crore collected in April 2022. It is up 10.6% from the first month of 2022 and 4.3% higher from December 2022. GST collections stood at Rs 1.5 lakh crore in December 2022 and Rs 1.41 lakh crore in January 2022. The latest number means GST collections have now exceeded the Rs 1.4-lakh crore mark for 11 months in a row.
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Retail inflation in milk was reported at 8.85% in May 2023. The milk inflation has remained elevated at over 6% since August 2022. Despite India being the largest milk producer since 1998, the commodity has been the second biggest factor after cereals such as rice and wheat in driving up retail inflation in the last fiscal.
Milk has the second highest weight in the food and beverages basket of the consumer price index at 6.61%, a notch lower than cereals and products with a 9.67% weight. Organised players, including Mother Dairy and Amul, hiked prices multiple times in the last one year citing higher fodder cost, robust demand and some impact due to reports of lumpy skin disease.
Industry sources said feed cost, which has a share of more than 65% in the cost of production of milk, has increased to Rs 20/kg from Rs 8 a year ago. The finance ministry in April had attributed the elevated milk inflation to a demand supply mismatch and said it could be one of the factors apart from volatile international crude oil prices and constrained supplies of milk would influence the country’s inflation trajectory.
“Milk production has been impacted by a lumpy skin disease infecting millions of cattle in late 2022,” the ministry said in the monthly economic review, adding that the vaccination drive against the disease is expected to curb the spread and immune the cattle against the skin disease.
According to official data, currently India is the world’s largest milk producer, and has a share of 23% in global milk production. For the first time in decades, the country’s milk production is likely to have stagnated in 2022-23 due to Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle across several states and the lagged effect of Covid-19 in the form of stunting of the animals, a senior official with department of animal husbandry and dairying recently had stated. The milk production was estimated at 221 million tonne in 2021-22.