Rupee likely to depreciate to 82
时间:2024-06-26 15:29:55 阅读(143)
By Dilip Parmar
The rupee took a beating, declining for a third straight week amid foreign fund outflows, higher crude oil prices and strong dollar demand from the corporates. The emerging market currencies posted their biggest weekly loss since April on expectations that US interest rates are headed higher to tame inflation. India’s inflation breached the top end of the central bank’s target for the first time in three months, validating the RBI’s worries about persistent price pressures. The CPI rose 6.2% from a year earlier, compares with a 5.72% gain in December on the back of a surge in cereal prices.
In the near term, the technical set-up for spot USDINR remains bullish. The pair is forming higher tops and bottoms on the daily chart with bullish momentum oscillators and indicators. From the level front, it has strong support around 81.90 and resistance around 82.90. Looking at the greenback against major currencies and Asian currencies, the USDINR pair is expected to head towards 82.90 in the coming weeks. Global equities and bonds that fell last week face their next big challenge with a measure of consumer prices.
The greenback is stronger amid higher Treasury yields as bets grow that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates higher for longer to stamp out inflation. The DXY gained 0.7% to 103.63 as US 10-year treasury yields spiked to 3.73, up 20bps in the week gone. A stronger-than-expected US economy was always identified as a potential catalyst to revive the dollar, but a month of solid employment and ISM Services numbers can’t upend the negative narrative. It’s all about data now, with inflation the next key, and dollar bears may also hold long FX volatility views this week.
(Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)
上一篇:Rating- buy - SBI Cards focuses on quality to tackle credit costs
下一篇:Year-end story- Steady rise in crop output fails to ease import dependence
猜你喜欢
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty settles below 17730, Sensex falls 220 pts; Bank Nifty rises 100 pts, Tata Steel tanks 5%
- Share Market Highlights- Sensex cuts losses in dying minutes to end flat with gains, Nifty closes at 15850
- Rating- BUY - Aavas to focus on tech transformation for growth
- Reliance Power offers Rs 1,200 cr to settle debt of Butibori power project
- Reliance Industries’ demerged unit, Jio Financial Services, gains momentum with higher-than-expected valuation
- Renault India plans 5 new launches in the next three years, including all-new Duster and an EV
- Reliance Retail’s valuation pegged at over $100 bn
- Share Market Highlights- Nifty adds 0
- RBI maintains status quo, keeps key interest rates unchanged; Here’s how market responded