Nifty to head towards 19400, Bank Nifty support at 41800; buy Reliance, TCS, SBI stocks for gains
时间:2024-06-26 11:23:50 阅读(143)
By Dharmesh Shah
Equity benchmarks clocked a fresh all time high and settled the week on a buoyant note tracking firm global cues after US Fed signalled smaller rate hikes ahead and china covid related worries ebbed. The Nifty settled the week at 18696, up 1%. The broader markets relatively outperformed the benchmark as the Nifty midcap, small cap gained over 3% and 2%, respectively. Sectorally, all major indices ended in green led by Metal, FMCG, realty
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Bank Nifty OutlookThe Bank Nifty traded in a range with positive bias to gain for the ninth consecutive week amid strong global cues as it scaled a fresh all all-time high (43515) during last week. The mid and small cap banking stocks outperformed while the large cap consolidated with positive bias. The index closed the week at 43103 levels up by 0.3%. The weekly price action formed a small bull candle with an upper shadow signaling profit booking at higher levels after sharp up move measuring 15% in past nine weeks.We expect the index to maintain positive bias and head gradually towards 44600 levels in the coming weeks being the 161.8% external retracement of the September 2022 breather (41840-37387). Dips should be used as a buying opportunity index has strong support placed around 41800 levels.Going forward, a temporary breather cannot be ruled out as the weekly stochastic after the recent sharp rally is placed at an overbought territory with a reading of 91. However, it will be confirmed only on formation of a lower high-low sequence. We believe corrective decline should not be seen as negative instead breather towards the breakout area of 41800 levels should be used as a buying opportunity for next leg of up move.Structurally, in the Bank Nifty rallies are getting faster and stronger while corrections are shallow, underpinning inherent strength highlighting robust price structure. The Bank Nifty has support at 41800 mark being the confluence of the (a) 23.6% retracement of the last nine weeks up move (37387-43515) placed at 41970 (b) the 10 weeks EMA currently placed at 41470 levels (c) the upper band of the recent eight weeks range breakout area placed around 41800 levels
(Dharmesh Shah is the Head – Technical at ICICI Direct. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. It is confirmed that the Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 21/01/2022 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest. I-Sec or its associates might have received any compensation towards merchant banking/ broking services from the subject companies mentioned as clients in preceding 12 months.
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Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.
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- tions and academic institutions have computed logistics costs, which are widely quoted to stress the point that India is a country with high logistics costs.” In addition to the ones I mentioned earlier, NCAER cites three—Armstrong and Associates (2017), an estimate of 13% of GDP; CII (2015), an estimate of 10.9% of GVA; and NCAER (2019), an estimate of 8.9% of GVA. Clearly, there are variations in what is being measured and how. This new NCAER report uses supply and use tables. What does it find? In 2021-22, logistics costs had an estimated range of between 7.8% and 8.9%. In 2014-15, they had an estimated range of between 8.3% and 9.4%. There has been a decline over time (with a transient increase in 2017-18 and 2018-19). It cannot be anyone’s case that this new NCAER report is the last word on the subject. But it is a beginning, with a clear methodology. And two points emerge. First, logistics costs aren’t as bad as they are often made out to be. Second, they have declined over time (also evident from LPI).
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.
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