Muthoot Finance Rating- Buy - Better times ahead for the company
时间:2024-06-26 13:28:58 阅读(143)
By Kotak Institutional Estimates
We believe that the withdrawal of teaser rate loans and better pricing discipline will support Muthoot’s near-term net interest margin (NIM). Gold price tailwinds due to a depreciating INR will augur well for Muthoot’s medium-term growth prospects. We remain positive and upgrade the stock to BUY (from ADD) with a revised Fair Value of Rs 1,240 (22% upside).
Rising competitive pressures had prompted Muthoot to launch teaser loans in December 2021 that put pressure on its NIM for two subsequent quarters. The company stopped the scheme in April but the entire portfolio was shifted to higher-yielding loans by June 2022. Increasing credit growth in the system will likely prompt these players to shift focus away from gold loans that tend to be a low-ticket, low-duration and high-velocity business.
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Valuation undemanding despite improving underlying securityWe remain assertive on Muthoot’s business model to deliver ~20% RoE and low-to-mid teens medium-term growth. Credit cost remains low due to solid underlying security and Muthoot’s risk-management systems that have ensured strong portfolio performance over cycles. Growth has, however, been volatile linked to gold price movements and auctions. While we are not revising our estimates, we find upside risks from a depreciating INR supporting gold prices. Valuations at 7.6X earnings and 1.5X book FY2024E are undemanding. BUY; RGM-based FV stands at Rs 1,240 .
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Retail inflation in milk was reported at 8.85% in May 2023. The milk inflation has remained elevated at over 6% since August 2022. Despite India being the largest milk producer since 1998, the commodity has been the second biggest factor after cereals such as rice and wheat in driving up retail inflation in the last fiscal.
Milk has the second highest weight in the food and beverages basket of the consumer price index at 6.61%, a notch lower than cereals and products with a 9.67% weight. Organised players, including Mother Dairy and Amul, hiked prices multiple times in the last one year citing higher fodder cost, robust demand and some impact due to reports of lumpy skin disease.
Industry sources said feed cost, which has a share of more than 65% in the cost of production of milk, has increased to Rs 20/kg from Rs 8 a year ago. The finance ministry in April had attributed the elevated milk inflation to a demand supply mismatch and said it could be one of the factors apart from volatile international crude oil prices and constrained supplies of milk would influence the country’s inflation trajectory.
“Milk production has been impacted by a lumpy skin disease infecting millions of cattle in late 2022,” the ministry said in the monthly economic review, adding that the vaccination drive against the disease is expected to curb the spread and immune the cattle against the skin disease.
According to official data, currently India is the world’s largest milk producer, and has a share of 23% in global milk production. For the first time in decades, the country’s milk production is likely to have stagnated in 2022-23 due to Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle across several states and the lagged effect of Covid-19 in the form of stunting of the animals, a senior official with department of animal husbandry and dairying recently had stated. The milk production was estimated at 221 million tonne in 2021-22.
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