Buy these two stocks for gains; 17200 to act as support for Nifty, Bank Nifty upside capped at 40000
时间:2024-09-29 05:34:50 阅读(143)
By Rohan Patil
Last week was an event-driven week where Nifty 50 held its volatility till the completion of the event and later on bulls confirmed their dominance and prices traveled above its resistance zones confirming the bullish breakout on the daily time frame. Prices witnessed a throwback in the last couple of trading sessions and eroded their fifty percent gain, but still manage to close two and a half percent higher on the weekly chart.
A bullish pole flag pattern on the weekly time frame seems to have completed its throwback near 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement and the uptrend is most likely to stretch the prices further higher.
From here on 17200 levels will act as immediate support for the Nifty 50 and if prices slip below this level then 17000 will be the next support zone for the index. The upper band is capped near 18000 levels for the time being. The options data indicates that the Nifty could remain in a broader range of 17200 – 18000 in the coming days.
Bank Nifty upside capped near 40000
It was a week where the banking index started to lead from the front and witnessed a breakout of a horizontal trend line resistance on the daily time frame. Bank Nifty has closed above its trend line resistance placed at 38700 levels and has also crossed above its 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement which was acting as strong resistance on a previous couple of occasions.
The banking index on Friday closed at 38789, down 220 points, and formed a bearish candle on the daily scale. However, there was a bullish candle formation on the weekly frame, as it gained 2.9 percent during the week.
The prices are well settled above their 21, 50 & 100 – day exponential moving averages on the daily as well as the weekly time frame. The momentum oscillator RSI (14) has formed an inverted head& shoulder pattern on the weekly chart with positive crossover and the breakout of the pattern is expected above 60 levels. The support for the banking index is placed near its previous resistance zone at 38600 – 38400 levels and the upper band is capped near 40000 levels.
NMDC: BUYTarget- Rs 165 | Stop Loss Rs 145Return 8%
The prices were trading in an inverted head & shoulder formation for the past three months and have formed a neck line resistance at 146 levels.
NMDC has broken out of an inverted head & shoulder at 148 levels on 02nd Feb and the prices have registered a decisive breakout that suggests a change in the trend from sideways to upside. Stock is trading above its 21, 50 & 100- day exponential moving averages on the daily time frame, which is positive for the prices in the near term.
The MACD indicator is reading above its centerline with a positive crossover above its signal line. Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is reading above 60 levels which indicates positive momentum will like to continue ahead.
MARICO: BUYTarget- Rs. 550 | Stop Loss- Rs 484Return 08%
The Prices are trading in a lower high lower low pattern since past three months and has formed a falling channel pattern on the daily time frame.
MARICO has broken out of a falling channel pattern at 497 levels on 01st Feb and the prices have registered a decisive breakout that suggests a change in the trend from bearish to bullish.
The sharp move on the 01st Feb has forced their pries to close above its 21-day exponential moving average and has breached its hurdle of downward sloping trend line on the daily interval. Momentum oscillator RSI (14) has witnessed a breakout of a horizontal trend line at 50 levels with positive crossover.
(Rohan Patil is a Technical Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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- tions and academic institutions have computed logistics costs, which are widely quoted to stress the point that India is a country with high logistics costs.” In addition to the ones I mentioned earlier, NCAER cites three—Armstrong and Associates (2017), an estimate of 13% of GDP; CII (2015), an estimate of 10.9% of GVA; and NCAER (2019), an estimate of 8.9% of GVA. Clearly, there are variations in what is being measured and how. This new NCAER report uses supply and use tables. What does it find? In 2021-22, logistics costs had an estimated range of between 7.8% and 8.9%. In 2014-15, they had an estimated range of between 8.3% and 9.4%. There has been a decline over time (with a transient increase in 2017-18 and 2018-19). It cannot be anyone’s case that this new NCAER report is the last word on the subject. But it is a beginning, with a clear methodology. And two points emerge. First, logistics costs aren’t as bad as they are often made out to be. Second, they have declined over time (also evident from LPI).
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.
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